Presented by Rich Tegge
General market news
- The yield on the 10-year Treasury opened this Monday at the same level as it opened last week, around 2.18 percent; however, it did spike to as high as 2.28 percent last Wednesday. The 30-year yield opened lower at 2.76 percent after it reached as high as 2.87 percent last week. All markets are looking at the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the meetings in Jackson Hole this week, with Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi scheduled to speak on Friday.
- S. markets were down last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted the largest decline of 0.77 percent. The S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite followed closely behind, with both dropping 0.58 percent. Conversely, international markets moved higher, particularly in the emerging market space. This contrast in performance was largely due to political tension in the U.S. President Trump was forced to disband two of his business councils after multiple CEOs jumped ship following his comments about the incident in Charlottesville. In addition, rumors swirled that the president’s chief economic advisor, Gary Cohn, might resign. This was followed by the exit of chief strategist Steve Bannon on Friday. Fortunately, international tensions over North Korea eased last week following reports that Kim Jung Un had cancelled his plans to attack Guam.
- Outside of political news, both the Fed and the European Central Bank discussed in their July minutes the lower pace of inflation. Retail sales saw a nice uptick last week, and the pace of inflation will continue to be a heavy focus as the central banks look to continue tightening.
- The economic news releases last week were mostly positive, with noted strength in consumer spending and home builder sentiment. As noted above, retail sales data beat expectations for growth on both the core and headline figures. On a month-over-month basis, headline retail sales gained 0.6 percent against expectations for 0.4-percent growth. This strength in retail sales is a welcome sign, as high consumer confidence had not translated into stronger consumer spending. If this growth in sales continues, it would certainly support accelerated second-half growth.
- Housing data was mixed. The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index rose from 64 to 68 against expectations that it would remain flat. This barometer of home builder confidence has remained in healthy expansionary territory for the year, and its bounce back to the high 60s indicates that home builder sentiment remains solid. On the other hand, both housing starts and building permits disappointed by declining more than expected. Given low levels of supply and strong home builder sentiment, these measures are expected to improve in the coming months.
| Equity Index | Week-to-Date | Month-to-Date | Year-to-Date | 12-Month |
| S&P 500 | –0.58% | –1.64% | 9.76% | 13.22% |
| Nasdaq Composite | –0.58% | –1.94% | 16.39% | 20.11% |
| DJIA | –0.77% | –0.75% | 11.43% | 19.44% |
| MSCI EAFE | 0.08% | –0.80% | 16.59% | 15.89% |
| MSCI Emerging Markets | 1.64% | –0.50% | 25.12% | 18.65% |
| Russell 2000 | –1.17% | –4.65% | 0.84% | 11.28% |
DirectSource: Bloomberg
| Fixed Income Index | Month-to-Date | Year-to-Date | 12-Month |
| U.S. Broad Market | 0.48% | 3.21% | 0.20% |
| U.S. Treasury | 0.67% | 2.73% | –1.32% |
| U.S. Mortgages | 0.41% | 2.22% | 0.62% |
| Municipal Bond | 0.39% | 4.81% | 0.57% |
Source: Morningstar
What to look forward to
This will be relatively quiet week on the economic news front. The few major releases will relate to housing sales and durable goods orders.
July’s new and existing home sales data will be released on Wednesday and Thursday of this week. New home sales are expected to remain unchanged at 610,000, as supply remains constrained. While this may not seem like an attention-grabbing growth figure, this level actually represents the fastest pace of new home sales since recording began. Existing home sales are expected to bounce back slightly from declines in June, although supply remains constrained here as well. It currently sits at its lowest level in more than 21 years.
Durable goods orders for July will be released on Friday. The headline figure is expected to decrease by 5.8 percent following a surprise 6.4-percent increase in June. This decline can be attributed to volatile airplane sales; Boeing received 184 airplane orders in June and only 22 in July. The core figure, which excludes airplane sales, is expected to notch a healthy gain of 0.5 percent for the month. This core reading is more indicative of overall business confidence, and a positive result would be a boon for business growth.
Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg Barclays US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million.
Rich Tegge is a financial advisor located at Wealth Strategy Group 300 S. Front Street Ste C, Marquette MI 49855. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 906-228-3696 or at rtegge@wsginvest.com.
Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network. © 2016 Commonwealth Financial Network ®