Presented by Rich Tegge
General market news
- The 10-year Treasury opened at 2.32 percent early Monday after reaching as high as 2.47 percent a little more than a week ago. The 30-year was also back to 2.80 percent after almost reaching 3 percent. The 2-year opened at 1.61 percent on Monday, moving up from 1.45 percent in the last month. The yield curve is the flattest it has been since 2007.
- All three major U.S. indices were higher on the week. The Nasdaq Composite Index posted the largest gain of 0.96 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 followed with gains of 0.45 percent and 0.29 percent, respectively.
- There were a number of large stories domestically last week, including the nomination of Jerome Powell as the new Federal Reserve (Fed) chair. The market yielded little reaction to the selection, as Powell’s nomination was widely expected, and his dovish policy is similar to that of Janet Yellen, the current chair. If approved, Powell would assume the position February 4, 2018.
- The GOP unveiled its tax-reform plan last week, which proposed a 20-percent corporate tax rate. The new proposal came at the cost of lowering home mortgage deduction limits, partially eliminating state and local tax deductions, and reeling in corporate interest-cost deductions. Certain areas of the market, such as homebuilder stocks, reacted to these proposed policies by trading down significantly. With opposition from many Democrats and some Republicans, it remains to be seen whether the bill will pass.
- The Fed kept rates unchanged for November but suggested that a rate hike would be likely in December.
- Turning to international news, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney elected to raise the bank’s borrowing rate from 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent last week, representing the first increase in more than a decade. The move is expected to reel in inflation after the Brexit vote.
- There were a number of important data point releases last week related to business confidence and hiring. On Wednesday, the ISM Manufacturing index declined slightly; on Friday, the ISM Nonmanufacturing index increased slightly, despite expectations for a decline. Both measures of business confidence are near post-recession highs.
- Also on Friday, the October employment report was released. The headline and underlying numbers were reasonably strong, with 261,000 new jobs created. Wage growth and participation disappointed; however, these figures may be due to some lingering effects from the hurricanes.
| Equity Index | Week-to-Date | Month-to-Date | Year-to-Date | 12-Month |
| S&P 500 | 0.29% | 0.51% | 17.50% | 26.42% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 0.96% | 0.55% | 26.82% | 35.26% |
| DJIA | 0.45% | 0.69% | 21.42% | 34.51% |
| MSCI EAFE | 0.92% | 0.31% | 22.71% | 25.44% |
| MSCI Emerging Markets | 1.46% | 0.64% | 33.45% | 30.60% |
| Russell 2000 | –0.87% | –0.51% | 11.31% | 30.94% |
Source: Bloomberg
| Fixed Income Index | Month-to-Date | Year-to-Date | 12-Month |
| U.S. Broad Market | 0.15% | 3.36% | 0.90% |
| U.S. Treasury | 0.19% | 2.33% | –0.78% |
| U.S. Mortgages | 0.11% | 2.40% | 0.55% |
| Municipal Bond | 0.12% | 5.05% | 2.14% |
Source: MorningstarDirect
What to look forward to
After a busy week last week, this week will be very slow on the economic news front. We expect only one major release.
On Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is expected to pull back slightly. After reaching the highest level in a decade at 100.7, expectations are for a small drop to 100, which would still be quite high. Given the strong performance of the stock market and gas prices dropping as the hurricane price spike winds down, there may be some upside risk here. In any event, if the data comes in as expected, it would signal continued economic strength.
Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg Barclays US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million.
Rich Tegge is a financial advisor located at Wealth Strategy Group 300 S. Front Street Ste C, Marquette MI 49855. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 906-228-3696 or at rtegge@wsginvest.com.
Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network. © 2016 Commonwealth Financial Network ®