Month: April 2022

Businesses And Consumers Likely Protected From Near-Term Recession

NOT ALL RECESSIONS ARE CREATED EQUAL Recessions are sometimes difficult to describe, let alone predict. Definitions vary widely. To make matters worse, some coin their mixed forecasts as a “growth recession.”1 Some simply describe a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, which is clearly not true because the 2001 recession was shorter: Businesses And Consumers Likely Protected From Near-Term Recession

What To Watch This Earnings Season

WHAT TO EXPECTWe expect corporate America to again report earnings above consensus estimates in the firstquarter. The consensus estimate is now calling for a 5% year-over-year increase in S&P 500Index earnings per share, not an easy target by any stretch [Figure 1]. Pressure on profit margins from higher costs for virtually everything, notably labor, materials, What To Watch This Earnings Season

Headwinds To Global Growth

This year, many aspects of the economy will likely be told as tales of two halves. Economic growth during the first half of this year will likely be different than the second half. Moreover, inflation pressures affect the lower half of the consumer base differently than the upper half. As the country adjusts to pandemic Headwinds To Global Growth

Our Stock Market Final Four

As the Final Four NCAA Basketball Tournament rolls on in New Orleans, we continue our traditionof picking a stock market final four. We have identified our four key factors for the stock marketoutlook: 1) Consumer spending, 2) Earnings, 3) Interest rates, and 4) Inflation. We also celebratelast year’s winner: COVID-19 vaccines. Below we discuss these Our Stock Market Final Four


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